The method
Analysing is not guessing.
It's putting reality in order.
A routine of three questions to put information in order before making a decision with money: what am I looking at, what surrounds it and what could happen.
It solves an everyday problem: receiving data, headlines and tips without knowing what to do with them. The method gives you an order to think in, the same every time, so the final decision is yours and you can explain why you made it. It works for investing, for taking out a loan or for reading the news calmly.
Before you start
A method is a habit.
The same order, every time.
What it does
- Put what's in front of you in order before forming an opinion.
- Compare each figure with what surrounds it.
- Anticipate possible paths and what you would do on each one.
Learn. Analyse. Decide. Learning is defining. Analysing is looking for context. Deciding is thinking in scenarios.
Step 01 · Define what you are looking at
First, name what's in front of you.
A fact, an opinion or an offer.
Before giving an opinion on a piece of information, it helps to know what it is. A price, a headline, a chart, a tip from an acquaintance and an advert are different things. Defining means putting a name to what's in front of you, separating fact from opinion and noticing what's missing. It's the step people skip most, and the one that protects you most.
It rests on Learn
The guiding question
Is what I'm looking at a fact, an opinion or someone trying to sell me something?
An everyday example
Someone in a group chat shares a screenshot: a green line climbing steeply and a caption saying it's about to take off. When you define it, you find there's no date, no scale and no source. It isn't data. It's an image with an opinion on top, and that's how it should be treated.
A sign you're on track: You can explain in one sentence what you saw and what it lacks, without having given an opinion yet.
Step 02 · Look for the context
No number stands alone.
Look at what surrounds it.
No piece of information is worth anything on its own. A number makes sense when you compare it with what came before, with what's happening around it and with your own situation. Looking for context means surrounding a figure with other figures until it starts to make sense. Sometimes the context confirms your first impression; often it changes it completely.
It rests on Analyse
The guiding question
Compared with what, and under what circumstances, does this figure mean what it seems to?
An everyday example
The landlord of the premises where you run your business raises the rent by twenty percent and says everything has gone up. With context, the statement changes: general prices rose ten percent and nearby premises around fifteen. The increase is above its surroundings, and that opens a different conversation.
A sign you're on track: The figure is no longer alone: next to it there is at least one comparison and one possible explanation.
Step 03 · Think in scenarios
You don't need to know what will happen.
You need to know what you would do.
Nobody knows what will happen, and the method doesn't pretend to. Instead of a prediction, it works with several possibilities: things go as you expect, they go worse, or they go better. Thinking in scenarios means asking yourself what you would do in each case and what it would cost you. The decision is made knowing that one of those paths will be yours.
It rests on Decide
The guiding question
If it goes wrong, what do I lose, and can I live with that?
An everyday example
You're thinking of taking out a loan to buy a bigger oven and sell more bread. Expected scenario: sales rise and cover the repayments. Worse: a month off sick with no sales and the same repayments. Better: orders come in for events. Seeing the worst scenario, you decide to borrow a smaller amount and set aside two repayments as a reserve before signing.
A sign you're on track: You no longer expect to be right; you know what you would do if you're not.
To practise it with guided exercises, write to us.
Order matters
Each step prepares the next.
Skipping one sends you back to the start.
The order matters because each step feeds the next. Skipping a step doesn't break the method; it just sends the decision back to where it started, with more confidence than it deserves.
- Define
Without defining, you look for context for something you can't name, and end up confirming what you already believed.
- Context
Without context, scenarios are invented from the emotion of the moment: everything seems possible, or everything seems lost.
- Scenarios
Without scenarios, the analysis stays on paper and the decision is made on impulse again.
One more step
The method makes sense when you read it.
Practising it is harder than reading it.
The three steps are easy to read and hard to stick to when money is involved. If you'd like to practise them with exercises and examples that don't fit on this page, write to us. We'll tell you what Capital en Claro's educational mentoring involves. We don't analyse your accounts or tell you what to do: we teach you to work through the steps on your own.
We call you by phone to answer your question.